PLO3: Communication

Security Analysis, 2021-2024:

Understanding Which Threats to Watch

Rachael Riggs

Henley-Putnam School of Strategic Security

National American University

INT511 Advanced Analytical Methods

Amie Bowman

December 2020

Security Analysis, 2021-2024:

Understanding Which Threats to Watch

Key Judgements

Technology is advancing at paramount speeds, and keeping up with this security has proven to

exacerbate. Knowing which threats can cause the most damage and which threat actors we need

to watch for is essential to aim our focus.

• The rapid growth of technology makes cyber-warfare1 Our largest concern.

• Threats are substantial with Organized Criminal Organizations, and one should not ignore

the severity. However, the most significant threat we face with cyber warfare is that with

nation-states and nation-state funding to such criminal organizations.2

• Malicious use of AI, Disinformation campaigns, hacking, and ransomware are at the top

of the list of threats we face in the U.S.

• Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are the nation-states that are the biggest threats to

America's security.

• Our best defense is the education and training of employees and government, corporate,

academic, and scientific community collaboration.

Introduction

This report focuses on the current threats the United States faces. One of our country's most

substantial threats involves advanced technology and the damage it can create. The analysis

shows that while other actors remain a threat, America's most significant threat concerning

1 Cyber Warfare is defined as the use of computer technology to disrupt the activities of a state or organization,

especially the deliberate attack of information systems for strategic or military purposes.

2 For an extensive list of state-sponsored hacking events, visit the Center for Strategic and International Studies

Website at https://www.csis.org/programs/...

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technology belongs to nation-states, precisely that of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

(Homeland Threat Assessment, 2020)

Background

Deep fakes are a tool capable of swapping faces and voices in photos and video. Deep Fake

technology, when used maliciously, can create massive chaos and destruction. Deep Fakes

are created when a person uses a facial recognition algorithm and a deep learning computer

network (Somers, 2020) to swap images, video, or audio with another person; this can happen for

entertainment and many other reasons. However, when done maliciously, the damage would be

large-scale. A leader giving a speech he never gave, a fake voice for voice recognition, or a

company owner transferring money are just a few examples of how Deep Fakes could cause

catastrophic consequences.

There are a few ways that a person can detect a Deep fake without software. A few

ways to spot one include noticing that a person is blinking too much, their hairline is off, a

pixilation difference, and if they are wearing glasses, check to see that the reflection matches the

scene. (Somers, 2020) The sophistication of this technology can make it hard for the naked eye

to spot.

Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran currently threaten America's national

security. Summing up Russia’s intentions in a September Signal Magazine article, “Russia has

built a disinformation ecosystem that tries to promote anything that drives a wedge between the

United States and our allies.” (Ackerman, Russia Weaponizes Increasingly Sophisticated

Disinformation, 2020) Ackerman goes on to state the five areas Russia has put their focus on:

• state-funded global messaging

• The cultivation of proxy sources

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• official government communications

• weaponizing social media

• cyber-enabled disinformation. (Ackerman, Russia Weaponizes Increasingly

Sophisticated Disinformation, 2020)

The DOJ’s information on their China Initiative states that 80% of economic espionage

prosecutions include conduct beneficial to China. It also states that 60% of all trade secret theft

cases are somehow related to China. (The United States Department of Justice, 2020)

Russia and China are the most significant threats to the security of the United

States, but Iran and North Korea pose a genuine cyber espionage threat. (Pompeo, 2020)

(United States Institute of Peace, 2020) North Korea is advancing its already sophisticated

nuclear weapons and missile program, which should be of significant concern in addition to

cyber warfare threats. (Nikitin, 2020)

Substantiation

Technology advancements pose a significant threat to the United States. The most

prominent cyber threat actors are nation-states. Technological refinements occur daily, and

as we progress into a society that heavily relies on these advancements, we must understand the

dangers we face as a nation. Disinformation campaigns3

, influence operations,4 Moreover, the

theft of government and corporate secrets threatens our national security and American

democracy. (Zegart, 2020) Four nation-states harbor the most significant threat to the United

States. Those four main threats include Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran. (Ackerman, 2020)

3 Disinformation Campaigns are state-sponsored and use disinformation, which is false or misleading information,

and spread the information to deceive, confuse, or cause significant problems.

4 The Rand Corp defines influence operations as “the collection of tactical information about an adversary as well as

the dissemination of propaganda in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent.”

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Technology improvements, in combination with disinformation operations, have the

potential for catastrophic consequences. Artificial Intelligence5

It brings with it such

technology to create Deep Fakes and the ability to bypass physical recognition. (Hao & O'Neill,

2020) Bypassing facial recognition has shown to be highly detrimental, such as McAfee's testing

of passport scans in an airport, which tricked the system into allowing a person through who is

on the "do not fly" list. (Povolny, 2020) Deep Fake technology, if used strategically, could cause

such undesirable results as mass confusion, riots, rebellion, revolt, nationwide distrust, and

potentially much worse repercussions.

Hacking and Ransomware6Continue to grow on the threat scale. In addition to what

we face with AI, we should remain concerned about hacking and ransomware, which continue to

expand as a national security threat. Beyond the stealing of state secrets and technological

blueprints, WMD should be of great concern. As we have seen with the Coronavirus pandemic,

the threat of bioweapons is real.

America needs to focus correctly to stay on top of cyber issues. The U.S. has spent the

past decade on counterterrorism, domestic issues, and the Coronavirus. We could have focused

on technological advancements and more robust security with that time lost. We need to make

that the focus now. (Sadat, 2020)

The four countries that have proven to be America's most substantial threat have

their own objective and focus. Russia strives to obtain the spot of the world's superpower. The

country focuses on AI used in disinformation operations, propaganda, surveillance, and military

5 Artificial Intelligence: “the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally

require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between

languages."

6 Ransomware: malicious software that infects your computer and displays messages demanding a fee to be paid for

your system to work again. It can lock a computer screen or encrypt important, predetermined files with a

password.”

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systems such as UAVs to attain this. (Sayler, 2020) China has focused on using A.I. for facial

recognition and surveillance measures. China's interests are in counterespionage, surveillance,

and military efforts. (Sayler, 2020) China has been America's most significant threat regarding

hacking (Thompson, 2020) and theft of information (FBI.Gov, 2020); because of this,

countermeasures need to be a strong focus, and American companies need to be involved in

deterring these activities. North Korea has focused on strengthening its nuclear weapons and

missile program. Iran and North Korea have used disinformation campaigns, undergone cyber

espionage, and frequently support criminal cyber threat actions against the United States via

state-sponsored activities. (Homeland Threat Assessment, 2020)

Context

This assessment focuses on one of the United States' most significant threats, technology,

and the issues arising from technological advancements. Furthermore, it discusses which

countries are the biggest threat to our National Security. The threats to America's national

security encompass many areas, and new threat actors appear daily. However, knowing what is

known now, we can narrow our focus to the four stated in this report. Technology has many

aspects that provide great value, but it also opens the doors to new threats our country has yet to

encounter. The best way to counter these threats is to be prepared for them, understand them, and

realize the impact that each of these threats could impose on us.

Conclusion/Recommendation

Our best defense against these attacks is to stop them before they occur. Our best line of

defense is working with tech companies to create new technology to help diminish the dangers

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involved, bringing in great minds to help create solutions, and hiring and training employees to

spot and deter attacks.

Creating and maintaining a solid network of collaborators within government,

academia, corporate, and the scientific community sectors is essential. Bringing these groups

of people together frequently to work together and aid in protecting the nation will provide the

most significant benefits. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stresses this need

with their Research on Influence Operations. (Shapiro, Thompson, & Wanless, 2020)

Collaboration, but mostly employee education and training, must be stressed more

of their importance. These recommendations will benefit our country's security. Mainly, A

strong emphasis needs to be put on every company, ensuring that their employees understand

threats, how they can happen, ways to avoid and mitigate threats, and to know when they are

being targeted. Ensuring an employee has this knowledge is not only essential but absolutely

critical.

T

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References

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Signal, p. 1. Retrieved from https://www.afcea.org/content/...

Ackerman, R. K. (2020, September 4). Russia Weaponizes Increasingly Sophisticated

Disinformation. Signal, p. 1. Retrieved from https://www.afcea.org/content/...

FBI.Gov. (2020, November 16). The China Threat. Retrieved December 2020, from FBI.Gov:

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Hao, K., & O'Neill, P. H. (2020, August 5). The hack that could make face recognition think

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